Thursday, March 26, 2009

Montreal Canadians: Playoffs?


The Montreal Canadiens. The most successful team in NHL history with 24 Stanley Cups. A team celebrating its 100th Anniversary, which included hosting the all-star game and changing their logo for the season to commemorate the milestone. A team that has won a Stanley Cup every decade of its existence. A team that has been in a playoff position since October and held the number one seed for a few weeks. Now in 8th spot and realistic danger of missing the playoffs. The Canadiens have been in free fall since the All-Star break in early February, dropping down the rankings to the now dangerous 8th and final spot with 83 points and nine games remaining. The Florida Panthers (81 pts, 8 Games Remaining) are the main pursuers of this spot, but they have not been too hot either. 

If the Canadiens were to miss the playoffs, the results would be catastrophic in the hockey obsessed city of Montreal, where the citizens live and die with their only professional team. To make a better guess as to whether the Canadiens will be in the big dance, one needs to compare theirs and the Panther's remaining games. 

Montreal: Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Chicago, at NY Islanders, at Toronto, Ottawa, at NY Rangers, at Boston, Pittsburgh

Out of these nine teams, five are worse than the Canadiens in terms of points. Unfortunately, Montreal plays two of the four teams that are above them on the road where they are only 15-19-3. Judging by the schedule, one can expect somewhere between 8-12 out of 16 available points. That would put them between 91-95 points. Now let's look at Florida's chances.

Florida: at Philadelphia, at Dallas, Ottawa, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Atlanta, Washington

Half of the games Florida plays are against teams above them in the standings, but fortunately, only three game are on the road, and two are against the Flyers, who they would lose to anyways. The Panthers are solid at home and should be able to defeat most of the remaining visitors. The Capitals and Penguins are the only ones that should pose a challenge, and Washington may not have incentives by that point anyways. The Panthers should come out with between 6-10 points. If they perform as they have lately, they will only get six, but if they are finally inspired to reach the playoffs for the first time since the 1999-2000 season, they may make some noise. 

Unfortunately, for the Panthers, their destiny does not lie in their own hands, and all odds point to the Canadiens clinching the number eight spot and a chance to continue their streak of winning every decade. However, despite the belief that anything can happen once you reach the playoffs, the Canadiens will not beat the Boston Bruins. In fact, even if the New Jersey Devils or the Washington Capitals manage to pull out the number one seed, the Canadiens are finished. Expect them to be playing into mid April, but not beyond that. 
-A.S

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