Best and Worst #1 Overall Picks of the Last 25 Years: NFL

With draft season already underway and three more to come in the next two months, I figured now would be a good time to take a look at the top 5 and worst 5 first picks of the various drafts. Because the NFL draft is already over and the other seasons have not ended yet, it makes most sense to start with the NFL. Because Matthew Stafford has yet to play a game in the NFL, the 2009 draft will not be accounted for, meaning only picks from 1984-2008 are taken into consideration. Because everyone likes to start off positively, let's look at the best first.

Best 5 #1 Picks

1) Bruce Smith - DE - 1984- Buffalo Bills

Although he never won a Super Bowl, Smith was one of the biggest reasons his Bills made the Super Bowl game four years in a row from 1990-1993. Smith was elected to 11 Pro Bowls and 9 All-Pro teams and is also the record holder for most career sacks with an even 200. Smith is unquestionably one of the two greatest Defensive Ends in the modern era and the Bills made an excellent selection when the picked him with the first pick in the draft. While some may argue that Jerry Rice has a better and more significant career, it is hard to blast choosing one hall-of-famer over another.

2) Peyton Manning - QB - 1998 - Indianapolis Colts

Despite looking like the obvious pick now, at the time there was actual indecision between choosing Manning or huge bust Ryan Leaf. Fortunately for the Colts, they went with the Tennessee star and have not looked back. In only 11 seasons, Manning has racked up 3 MVP awards, 9 Pro Bowl selections, 4 All-Pro selections, and of course a Super Bowl (as well as the Super Bowl MVP). Manning has crafted a career that may end up being the greatest QB career ever. By the end of his reign, he will probably have broken all of Favre's records, except for interceptions. When all is said and done, Manning will be the greatest first overall pick of the last 25 years, if not ever.

3) Troy Aikman - QB - 1989 - Dallas Cowboys

Aikman filled the QB position for Dallas's amazing trio in the 90's. With the help of WR Michel Irvin, and all time rushing yards record holder Emmit Smith, Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowls in '93,'94' and '96, taking home the MVP of the Super Bowl for the first win. Although concussion problems limited his career to only 12 seasons, Aikman made the pro bowl in half of them and ultimately qualified for the Hall-of-Fame. Until Manning broke it in the 2000's, Aikman had the record for most wins in a decade with 90 in the 1990's.

4) Orlando Pace - OT - 1997 - St. Louis Rams

This giant of a man (6'7, 325 lbs) made himself into one of the best offensive lineman in recent history. After an amazing college career at Ohio State, Pace continued to be a wall for defensive linemen in the NFL. Pace protected Kurt Warner well enough for Warner to lead the Rams to two Super Bowl appearances, including a win in 1999 over the Tennessee Titans. Along with his Super Bowl ring, Pace has made 7 Pro Bowls and 5 All-Pro teams. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed his career lately and he now hopes to get back on track in Chicago.

5) Eli Manning - QB - 2004 - San Diego Chargers (Traded to New York Giants on Draft Day)

After the top four, there is a steep decline in qualities of picks. The deciding factor for Eli Manning was the fact that not only did he win a Super Bowl, but he also won a Super Bowl MVP. Manning entered the league with controversy after he refused to play for the San Diego Chargers, the team that originally drafted him and then losing his first few games in the 2004 season. However, after a few growing pains, Manning finally came into his own, making his first pro bowl this past year and winning the Super Bowl over the heavily favored Patriots in 2007.

Others Considered: Drew Bledsoe, Carson Palmer, Keyshawn Johnson, Mario Williams

Worst 5 #1 Picks

1) Ki-Jana Carter - RB - 1995 - Cincinnati Bengals

Unlike other busts inthe NFL, Carter's failed NFL career can be attributed more to injury than immaturity or simple lack of skills. After an outstanding three years at Penn State, the Bengals choose Carter with the first pick and seemed to have solved their running game problems. Unfortunately for all parties involved, Carter tore a ligament in knee in the preseason and never lived up to his potential. In 10 seasons, Carter rushed for only 20 touchdowns and averaged a miserable 3.6 yards per carry. 

Better Picks: Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Warren Sapp, Ty Law, Curtis Martin

2) Aundray Bruce - OLB - 1988 - Atlanta Falcons

Bruce's perceived failure may be due to unreal expectations. Although he had a good career at Auburn, people dubbed him the next Lawrence Taylor, an almost impossible level to reach. In the next 11 years, Bruce only started in 42 games and racked up a total of 32 sacks, hardly L.T. like numbers. While he was not a terrible role players, he did not come close to reaching the levels one expects out of a number one overall pick.

Better Picks: Tim Brown, Sterling Sharpe, Michael Irvin, Randall McDaniel, Thurman Thomas

3) Steven Emtman - DT - 1992 - Indianapolis Colts

Emtman is another bust whose career failed due to injuries. In his first three seasons, Emtman only played 18 games and only sacked the QB five times. The Colts drafted Emtman expecting a big, tough player to stop the run and get at the QB. Instead what they got was an injury prone player who was forced to retire at only 27 years old after six years in the league. 

Better Picks: Troy Vincent, Chester McGlockton, Jimmy Smith, Darren Woodson

4) Tim Couch - QB - 1999 - Cleveland Browns

Couch may have had a much better season had he not been chosen by the talentless Browns, who were reactivated the year Couch was drafted. This scenario left Couch with weak wide receivers, a bad offensive line, and basically no help in the running game. Couch did not perform too badly, leading his team to the playoffs in 2002, but an injury in the last game in the 2002 seasons sidelined him for good. Couch never threw more than two more TDs than INTs and never had a season passer rating of more than 77.6. Couch has a few injuries, but he played enough to show what he had and he did not have much.

Better Picks: Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Daunte Culpepper

5) Alex Smith - QB - 2005 - San Francisco 49ers

Some might consider it too early to call Smith a bust but the fact that he is a third string QB on a team that did not come close to the playoffs last year says it all. Smith's problems came early in his career when he threw only one TD and 11 picks in his rookie year; unfortunately, things did not get much better from there. After a mediocre sophomore season, Smith played only seven games in his third year and did not see the field once last year. In his four year career, Smith has thrown 19 TDs to 31 INTs and had a QB rating of 63.5. Smith still has time to turn his career around but there are no indications that that will happen anytime soon.

Better Picks: Barylon Edwards, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Marriman

-A.S.