NHL Finals Predictions

Let the comparisons commence. The NHL finals will be a repeat of the previous year's matchup for the first time since the 1983-84 finals, which was a repeat of the '82-83. Two two teams that clashed twice in a row were the incumbent New York Islanders and the up and coming Edmonton Oilers, led by, of course, Wayne Gretzky and his posse of young offensive superstars. The number of similarities are many.

1) 5 Stanley Cups

Like the Islanders, the Red Wings are going for their 5th Stanley Cup in recent years. While the Islanders won it four times in a row before their loss to the Oilers, the Red Wings won their first in 1997. Still, no one in the last 12 years has come close to matching the number of cups the Red Wings have won. The only team that has won more than one is the New Jersey Devils, who won in 2000 and 2003. Like the Islanders, the Red Wings are trying to continue a dynasty and win their 5th cup in the expansion era. 

2) Hall of Fame Defenseman

For the Islanders, it was Dennis Potvin; for the Red Wings its Niklas Lidstrom. Each has won multiple Norris Trophies for best defenseman in the league (Potvin had 3, Lidstrom has 6 and counting) and each was captain when the team won the cup. While there were many other strong players on each team, there is no question that these two players were the steady leaders and cornerstones needed to win Stanley Cups. 

3) Youth

The Penguins and Oilers were both led by young players in all positions. Gretzky, a 23-year old captain, received offensive help by 24 year old Jari Kurri, 23 year old Mark Messier, and 24 year old Glenn Anderson. On defense, 23 year old Paul Coffey became only the third defenseman to score more than 100 points in a season. And in goal, 22 year old Grant Fuhr stopped enough pucks to lead the team to its first cup. While the Penguins are not quite as young overall, their leaders are. Crosby, the captain, is two years younger than Gretzky was and he is helped by 22 year old Evengi Malkin, and 20 year old Jordan Staal. While the defense is led by veteran Sergei Gonchar, it is helped by future star 22 year old Kris Letang. In net, 2003 first overall pick Marc-Andre Fleury hopes to duplicate Fuhr's success in his second going in the Stanley Cup finals. 

The similarities continue but not it is time for predictions. Unfortunately, I once again went 50% in the last round, foolishly counting on youth over experience when choosing Chicago over Detroit. However, I do not learn from my mistakes and I am predicting the Penguins to take home the biggest prize in hockey for the first time since 1992. Unlike the Black Hawks, the Penguins have both youth and experience. They have made the playoffs for the last three years and made it to the finals last year. Just like the Oilers, the Penguins hope to show that they learned more from losing in the finals than the Red Wings did from winning. While the Red Wings have more depth from top to bottom, the Penguins hope their speed can overcome that flaw. Another thing the Penguins have going for them is the injuries to Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk, maybe the best two-way player in the league. If these two miss any games or cannot perform up to their best, the Red Wings will be in trouble. If the Red Wings do not get their essential players back, the series will be over in 6. If they do, I give it 7. The Penguins are young, hungry, and ready. Its the Red Wings' cup to lose but they will.

-A.S.

Conference Finals Predictions

After a strong performance in the first round, I stumbled in the second. I went 6/8 in the first round, incorrectly choosing the choke artists San Jose Sharks and surprisingly weak closers New Jersey Devils. However, I did pick every other series correctly and I had hoped to carry on my strong showing. Unfortunately, the Hurricanes once again thwarted my plan, beating the Bruins in 7. The Canucks also apparently did not want to follow my predictions and decided to let in 7 goals in the deciding game 6. Did I expect Roberto Luongo, maybe the best goalie in the league to let in 7 goals in the most important game of his career? I can honestly say I was shocked. Despite my less than passing grade of 50% in the last round, I think, nay, I know I will get back on my feet and go 2 for 2 in the upcoming series.

Western Conference

2) Detroit Red Wings vs. 4) Chicago Black Hawks

Before this season started, these two teams had two things in common, they are both Original 6 teams and they both play in the Central Division. Now they have one more, they are in the Western Conference Finals and that is it. These two classic teams could not be more opposite. One the one hand, you have Detroit who currently has the shortest Stanley Cup drought in the NHL, as they just won the Cup last spring. On the other hand, Chicago has the longest, having never won the championship since 1961. Detroit is captained by Swedish defensman Nicklas Lidstrom, the 38 year old veteran who has won four Stanley Cups. Chicago is captained by center Jonathan Toews, the 21-year old who was drafted three years ago. This matchup is the quintessential youth versus experience, speed versus knowledge, and Chicago versus Detroit. Much like the Bulls in the 1980s, the Black Hawks are coming in without any experience but a lot of firepower. Besides Toews, Chicago will rely on 20-year old and reigning Calder Cup Trophy (Best rookie) winner Patrick Kane, and 28-year old Martin Havlat for their scoring punch. In terms of keeping the puck out of their net, Chicago has a strong arsenal of young defenseman and if Detroit gets past them, they will have the get by goalie Nikolai "The Bulin Wall" Khabibulin, Chicago's lone Stanley Cup winner. Khabibulin led the Tampa Bay Lightning to the ultimate prize in 2004 and many believe he should have won the Conn Smythe Trophy (Most valuable player in the playoffs). He is proven and if he gets hot, he'll be hard to beat. Obviously Detroit has their own line up of deadly snipers and solid defenseman but they have yet to see a team with as much speed as the Black Hawks. The Blackhawks have already beaten two of the best goalies in the league in the past two rounds and Detroit's Chris Osgood is no Luongo or Mikka Kiprusoff. Osgood has led his team to the cup before but that was behind great defenses. If Chicago is able to use its speed and energy to get by and tire the Red Wings, this series could go either way. After doubting this young team last round, I will be expecting the upset.

Chicago in 6

Eastern Conference 

4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 6) Carolina Hurricanes

What I did not realize when I choose the Devils and then the Bruins over the Hurricanes was that Hurricane's goalie Cam Ward does not like to lose. Leading back to their Stanley Cup run in 2006, when he won the Smythe Trophy, Ward has yet to lose a playoff series in his career, going 6-0 thus far. Sidney Crosby and his fellow offensively talented Penguins hope to change this streak. After dismantling the Capitals in game 7 after a long and hard fought series, the Penguins are looking like an unstoppable offensive force, especially Crosby. Crosby, usually the set-up man, has scored 12 goals in 13 games so far in the playoffs and has had help. Evengi Malkin also began to contribute to the stat sheet after starting off the Washington series a little slow. However, the X-factor for the Penguins will be the play of third line center Jordan Staal. Staal will probably be matched up against his older brother and Carolina center Eric Staal, and their play may determine the series. If J. Staal is able to shut down his big brother and manage the put a few in the back of the net, the Penguins will be golden. If E. Staal runs all over his little brother and continues to be the goal scoring machine he has been so far, this series could go on longer than expected. While Jordan Staal and his line will take on much of the burden of stopping Carolina's first line, he will be helped by strong defensive play, especially out of veteran Rob Scuderi. Scuderi was the unsung hero of the Washington series, shutting down superstar Alexander Ovechkin more often than not. Although Ovechkin still put up his fair share of goals, and there were many, Scuderi held him in check with his shot blocking and strong checking ability. The Penguins may want to use a similar game plan by having Scuderi shadow E. Staal to prevent any openings. The Penguins are more talented and are better than Carolina at its own game. If the Penguins raise their play, as they have been doing, and do not allow the Hurricanes to feed of its momentum, a birth in the Finals should be in the bag. Sorry Ward, I still do not believe in you.

Penguins in 6

-A.S.

Increasing Importance of the Stolen Base

Although it’s early in the 2009 season, there have been some very memorable moments on the base paths this year. With the bases loaded in a 2-1 game, Jacoby Ellsbury stole home against Andy Pettitte in late April. Then, just a week later, Carl Crawford became only the third player since 1912 to steal 6 bases in a game, tying a MLB record. Then, just yesterday, Jayson Werth became the second player to steal home this year and just the ninth player since 1942 to steal second, third, and home in the same inning. Werth had four stolen bases total against the Dodgers and stole three in the seventh inning. He was able to sneak home after realizing Dodger catcher Russell Martin was paying no attention to him at third. As Martin was throwing the ball back to the mound after the fourth pitch of the at-bat, Werth broke for home and slid across home plate safely.

Although there have been some unusual feats accomplished already this year, stolen base numbers are on the rise across the majors. 20% into the season, teams are on pace to have more stolen bases than in any year this decade. The league average is on pace to be 105 total stolen bases per team by the end of the year. Last year, teams averaged 93 steals. From 2002 to 2007, teams averaged just 90 steals a year.

Teams are being aggressive on the bases and trying to force the issue. With home-run numbers down from the beginning of the decade, teams are finding new ways to score. Sluggers are being replaced by speedsters who can wreak havoc on the bases. From 2000-2003, an average of only 4 players had 40 or more steals per year. From 2006-2008, the average of players with more than 40 steals climbed to slightly over 9. And so far this year, 15 players are on pace to have at least 40 steals by the end of the season. Carl Crawford, leading the majors with 22 stolen bases, is on pace for 110, which would make him the first player since 1987 to have more than 100 steals in a single season.

Comparing home-run numbers and stolen bases on a team by team basis also shows the importance of the stolen base, at least for part of the league. Currently, the five teams with the most homers have a combined 96 stolen bases. The five teams with the lowest home-run totals have a combined 119 steals. At this pace, the teams with the lowest home-run totals would have 23 more stolen bases than teams with the highest home-run totals by the end of the year.

Top 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Rangers	55	25
Yankees	48	23
Blue Jays	45	15
Brewers	44	10
Rockies	43	23
Total	235	96

Bottom 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Giants	18	22
Athletics	19	12
Pirates	22	18
Mets	24	29
Angels	24	38
Total	107	119

Teams that have trouble hitting home-runs due to either a lack of power in their lineup or ballpark dimensions/conditions will tend to steal more bases in order to generate offensive production. Teams that are able to hit a lot of home-runs can rely on the long-ball for offense and do not have to steal as many bases. The risk-reward for stealing bases for HR-hitting teams is much lower than for teams who do not hit as many home-runs. Consider the following example: there are two outs and the team at-bat is down by a run late in the game. There is a base-stealer on first with the cleanup hitter batting. A team, such as the Rangers, who hit a ton of home-runs, will be less likely to make an attempt at stealing second base than a team like the Giants who rarely hit home-runs. The Giants need to make something happen by being aggressive on the bases while the Rangers can wait for the long-ball. To have a legitimate shot at tying the game, the Giants would need to get a runner into scoring position by stealing while the Rangers could realistically win on a 2-run homer.

This year, we have already had some extraordinary moments on the base paths, and as home-run totals continue to decline in the post-steroid era, we should expect to have some more in the near future. Look for teams to be more aggressive on the base-paths; stealing second with 2 outs, stealing third with 1 out, stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. We may even see managers encouraging players to steal home or setting up the suicide squeeze in a tight game. Nothing is out of the question when offenses are struggling to hit the long-ball.

However, if stolen base numbers continue to rise, look for teams to adjust over time. A premium may be put on defensive-minded catchers and outfielders who can limit the number of extra-base hits. In addition, look for pitchers to adjust by developing new pick-off moves and changing their routine upon delivery to the plate, such as holding the ball longer in order to freeze the runner. Another effect of the increased stolen base numbers is a decrease in the number on intentional walks. Intentional walks are already down this year and are on pace to be the lowest total in the last decade. If fewer players are hitting home-runs and more are stealing bases, then it makes sense for pitchers to challenge hitters at the plate rather than automatically putting them on base where they could be a threat.

Now that home-run production has declined from the past 15 years, the stolen base will be increasingly utilized by teams struggling for offense. The stolen base will have far-reaching impacts on the game and force teams to change their strategies. As the season continues, look for teams struggling to score to take more chances on the bases and maybe even a couple of more players stealing home. -J.S.

Early Correlation between Experience and Success…and Money

Just five weeks into the baseball season, an interesting trend has emerged regarding average age and winning. Thus far, the ten oldest teams (as measured by average age of the active roster) have a combined record of 171-142, 29 games above .500. Of those ten teams (Astros, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, and Orioles), three are division-leaders and only one (Orioles) is in last place in its division. Meanwhile, the ten youngest teams have a combined record of 140-169, 29 games below .500. Of those ten teams (Marlins, Pirates, Twins, Rangers, Rockies, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Padres, and Mariners), one (Rangers) is a division-leader and four are in last place in their respective divisions. Looking at team payrolls as well shows that richer teams are generally winning more games. Based on the 2009 payrolls, the top ten richest teams (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers, and Mariners) have a combined record of 169-140, 29 games above .500. The ten poorest teams (Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Rays, Twin, Orioles, Rangers, and Royals) have a combined record of 141-172, 31 games below .500.

Youngest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Marlins	26.2	17-15	36.8 (30)
Pirates	26.4	12-19	48.7 (28)
Twins	26.8	15-17	65.3 (24)
Rangers	26.9	17-14	68.2 (22)
Rockies	27.0	12-18	75.2 (18)

Oldest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Astros	30.2	14-17	103.0 (8)
Mets	29.8	17-13	149.4 (2)
Phillies	29.3	15-14	113.0 (7)
Blue Jays	28.9	22-12	80.5 (15)
Cubs	28.6	17-14	134.8 (3)

Does veteran leadership lead to more winning?
We constantly hear that “experience” can be an invaluable asset in the clubhouse and can help guide younger, less-experienced players. The argument that experienced players are not as easily overwhelmed by new situations, experienced players keep their cools in the clutch, and experienced players have learned from similar situations they have undergone in the past contribute to this idea as well. Teams that have had success recently often have had at least one of these veteran presences in the clubhouse. Last year, World Series winner Philadelphia had 45-year-old Jamie Moyer. The AL Champion Rays had veteran outfielder Cliff Floyd and closer Troy Percival, both of whom signed with the Rays in the offseason prior to their improbable World Series run.

Does more money lead to more winning?
Money runs our society and players want as much of it as they can get. Teams with more money to offer are able to lure superstars away from smaller-market teams and these superstars contribute to more success on the field. Richer teams also have more trade power and can acquire big stars via trades with smaller-market teams while merely shipping away young, unproven prospects. Recent examples include Johan Santana to the Mets via trade, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira to the Yankees via free agency, and Manny Ramirez resigning with the Dodgers for $25 million a year.

Does more money lead to older/more experienced players? Richer teams are able to procure experienced, winning players more easily than teams with lower payrolls. If the argument that having certain veterans leads to championships holds true, then richer teams can offer these veterans more money. This past year alone the Mets acquired veteran Alex Cora, a type of player considered to bring a positive presence to the clubhouse and the type of player that could catapult the Mets to the World Series. Cora, a “winning” player (1 World Series ring with Boston), was acquired by the Mets for $2 million. Cora, a mere bench player, would be the 4^th highest paid player on San Diego and the 8^th highest paid player on Florida and Minnesota with the same contract. Other recent examples include Mark Kotsay resigning with Boston for $1.5 million and Mark Loretta signing with the Dodgers for $1.25 million.

The relationship between age, money and winning is an interesting one and has profound impacts on the game. Veteran leadership and experience can propel teams to championships. Acquiring superstars can have the same effect. Although it is early in the 2009 season, trends between age, money, and winning are clearly evident and will continue to influence the game. -J.S.

Can Anyone Stop the Cavs?

First let me just say that the West is still a lot better than the East. The final four teams in the Western Conference are more talented and stronger than the four teams in the East. That said however, the best individual team may come from the weaker conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers have stormed through the playoffs and are on their way to a second straight sweep. After compiling a league's best 66-16 record and an almost record setting home record of 39-2, the Cavaliers look like the team to beat. Of course, it doesn't hurt when you have the Coach of the Year in Mike Brown and the best player and newly crowned MVP in LeBron James. James finally won his first MVP award in his sixth season and became the youngest to do so since Moses Malone in 1979. James' extraordinary set of skills makes him the most exciting and compelling player in the NBA. His natural ability to get to the basket, make great passes, and pull down rebounds sets him apart from rivals like Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. Bryant may be the best scorer in the league, Wade may be the best penetrator, Dwight Howard may be the best rebounder, and Chris Paul may be the best passer, but none of them have the complete skill set of LeBron. 

 While James is far and away the best and most important player on the Cavs, what really makes the team special is the complementary players and the chemistry they have. Every player knows and embraces his role. Anderson Varejao provides the energy, all-star Mo Williams provides the secondary scoring, and Delonte West provides another penetrating factor to free up LeBron. Every player means something to this team. Their chemistry and tightness as a team is also astonishing. When James accepted his MVP, he brought his whole team to the ceremony and seeing his reactions to another teammates' dunk or flashy pass shows this is not a one-man show like the Lakers. The Cavaliers have yet to show weakness in the playoffs and to be honest, one should not expect a challenge until the Finals. Orlando or Boston may take a game or two in the Eastern Conference Finals but there is no way this Cavaliers team is not winning the East. When all is said and done, expect LeBron and his teammates to bring back the most important trophy of all: the Championship.

-A.S.