Increasing Importance of the Stolen Base

Although it’s early in the 2009 season, there have been some very memorable moments on the base paths this year. With the bases loaded in a 2-1 game, Jacoby Ellsbury stole home against Andy Pettitte in late April. Then, just a week later, Carl Crawford became only the third player since 1912 to steal 6 bases in a game, tying a MLB record. Then, just yesterday, Jayson Werth became the second player to steal home this year and just the ninth player since 1942 to steal second, third, and home in the same inning. Werth had four stolen bases total against the Dodgers and stole three in the seventh inning. He was able to sneak home after realizing Dodger catcher Russell Martin was paying no attention to him at third. As Martin was throwing the ball back to the mound after the fourth pitch of the at-bat, Werth broke for home and slid across home plate safely.

Although there have been some unusual feats accomplished already this year, stolen base numbers are on the rise across the majors. 20% into the season, teams are on pace to have more stolen bases than in any year this decade. The league average is on pace to be 105 total stolen bases per team by the end of the year. Last year, teams averaged 93 steals. From 2002 to 2007, teams averaged just 90 steals a year.

Teams are being aggressive on the bases and trying to force the issue. With home-run numbers down from the beginning of the decade, teams are finding new ways to score. Sluggers are being replaced by speedsters who can wreak havoc on the bases. From 2000-2003, an average of only 4 players had 40 or more steals per year. From 2006-2008, the average of players with more than 40 steals climbed to slightly over 9. And so far this year, 15 players are on pace to have at least 40 steals by the end of the season. Carl Crawford, leading the majors with 22 stolen bases, is on pace for 110, which would make him the first player since 1987 to have more than 100 steals in a single season.

Comparing home-run numbers and stolen bases on a team by team basis also shows the importance of the stolen base, at least for part of the league. Currently, the five teams with the most homers have a combined 96 stolen bases. The five teams with the lowest home-run totals have a combined 119 steals. At this pace, the teams with the lowest home-run totals would have 23 more stolen bases than teams with the highest home-run totals by the end of the year.

Top 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Rangers	55	25
Yankees	48	23
Blue Jays	45	15
Brewers	44	10
Rockies	43	23
Total	235	96

Bottom 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Giants	18	22
Athletics	19	12
Pirates	22	18
Mets	24	29
Angels	24	38
Total	107	119

Teams that have trouble hitting home-runs due to either a lack of power in their lineup or ballpark dimensions/conditions will tend to steal more bases in order to generate offensive production. Teams that are able to hit a lot of home-runs can rely on the long-ball for offense and do not have to steal as many bases. The risk-reward for stealing bases for HR-hitting teams is much lower than for teams who do not hit as many home-runs. Consider the following example: there are two outs and the team at-bat is down by a run late in the game. There is a base-stealer on first with the cleanup hitter batting. A team, such as the Rangers, who hit a ton of home-runs, will be less likely to make an attempt at stealing second base than a team like the Giants who rarely hit home-runs. The Giants need to make something happen by being aggressive on the bases while the Rangers can wait for the long-ball. To have a legitimate shot at tying the game, the Giants would need to get a runner into scoring position by stealing while the Rangers could realistically win on a 2-run homer.

This year, we have already had some extraordinary moments on the base paths, and as home-run totals continue to decline in the post-steroid era, we should expect to have some more in the near future. Look for teams to be more aggressive on the base-paths; stealing second with 2 outs, stealing third with 1 out, stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. We may even see managers encouraging players to steal home or setting up the suicide squeeze in a tight game. Nothing is out of the question when offenses are struggling to hit the long-ball.

However, if stolen base numbers continue to rise, look for teams to adjust over time. A premium may be put on defensive-minded catchers and outfielders who can limit the number of extra-base hits. In addition, look for pitchers to adjust by developing new pick-off moves and changing their routine upon delivery to the plate, such as holding the ball longer in order to freeze the runner. Another effect of the increased stolen base numbers is a decrease in the number on intentional walks. Intentional walks are already down this year and are on pace to be the lowest total in the last decade. If fewer players are hitting home-runs and more are stealing bases, then it makes sense for pitchers to challenge hitters at the plate rather than automatically putting them on base where they could be a threat.

Now that home-run production has declined from the past 15 years, the stolen base will be increasingly utilized by teams struggling for offense. The stolen base will have far-reaching impacts on the game and force teams to change their strategies. As the season continues, look for teams struggling to score to take more chances on the bases and maybe even a couple of more players stealing home. -J.S.

Early Correlation between Experience and Success…and Money

Just five weeks into the baseball season, an interesting trend has emerged regarding average age and winning. Thus far, the ten oldest teams (as measured by average age of the active roster) have a combined record of 171-142, 29 games above .500. Of those ten teams (Astros, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, and Orioles), three are division-leaders and only one (Orioles) is in last place in its division. Meanwhile, the ten youngest teams have a combined record of 140-169, 29 games below .500. Of those ten teams (Marlins, Pirates, Twins, Rangers, Rockies, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Padres, and Mariners), one (Rangers) is a division-leader and four are in last place in their respective divisions. Looking at team payrolls as well shows that richer teams are generally winning more games. Based on the 2009 payrolls, the top ten richest teams (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers, and Mariners) have a combined record of 169-140, 29 games above .500. The ten poorest teams (Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Rays, Twin, Orioles, Rangers, and Royals) have a combined record of 141-172, 31 games below .500.

Youngest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Marlins	26.2	17-15	36.8 (30)
Pirates	26.4	12-19	48.7 (28)
Twins	26.8	15-17	65.3 (24)
Rangers	26.9	17-14	68.2 (22)
Rockies	27.0	12-18	75.2 (18)

Oldest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Astros	30.2	14-17	103.0 (8)
Mets	29.8	17-13	149.4 (2)
Phillies	29.3	15-14	113.0 (7)
Blue Jays	28.9	22-12	80.5 (15)
Cubs	28.6	17-14	134.8 (3)

Does veteran leadership lead to more winning?
We constantly hear that “experience” can be an invaluable asset in the clubhouse and can help guide younger, less-experienced players. The argument that experienced players are not as easily overwhelmed by new situations, experienced players keep their cools in the clutch, and experienced players have learned from similar situations they have undergone in the past contribute to this idea as well. Teams that have had success recently often have had at least one of these veteran presences in the clubhouse. Last year, World Series winner Philadelphia had 45-year-old Jamie Moyer. The AL Champion Rays had veteran outfielder Cliff Floyd and closer Troy Percival, both of whom signed with the Rays in the offseason prior to their improbable World Series run.

Does more money lead to more winning?
Money runs our society and players want as much of it as they can get. Teams with more money to offer are able to lure superstars away from smaller-market teams and these superstars contribute to more success on the field. Richer teams also have more trade power and can acquire big stars via trades with smaller-market teams while merely shipping away young, unproven prospects. Recent examples include Johan Santana to the Mets via trade, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira to the Yankees via free agency, and Manny Ramirez resigning with the Dodgers for $25 million a year.

Does more money lead to older/more experienced players? Richer teams are able to procure experienced, winning players more easily than teams with lower payrolls. If the argument that having certain veterans leads to championships holds true, then richer teams can offer these veterans more money. This past year alone the Mets acquired veteran Alex Cora, a type of player considered to bring a positive presence to the clubhouse and the type of player that could catapult the Mets to the World Series. Cora, a “winning” player (1 World Series ring with Boston), was acquired by the Mets for $2 million. Cora, a mere bench player, would be the 4^th highest paid player on San Diego and the 8^th highest paid player on Florida and Minnesota with the same contract. Other recent examples include Mark Kotsay resigning with Boston for $1.5 million and Mark Loretta signing with the Dodgers for $1.25 million.

The relationship between age, money and winning is an interesting one and has profound impacts on the game. Veteran leadership and experience can propel teams to championships. Acquiring superstars can have the same effect. Although it is early in the 2009 season, trends between age, money, and winning are clearly evident and will continue to influence the game. -J.S.