Early Correlation between Experience and Success…and Money

Just five weeks into the baseball season, an interesting trend has emerged regarding average age and winning. Thus far, the ten oldest teams (as measured by average age of the active roster) have a combined record of 171-142, 29 games above .500. Of those ten teams (Astros, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, and Orioles), three are division-leaders and only one (Orioles) is in last place in its division. Meanwhile, the ten youngest teams have a combined record of 140-169, 29 games below .500. Of those ten teams (Marlins, Pirates, Twins, Rangers, Rockies, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Padres, and Mariners), one (Rangers) is a division-leader and four are in last place in their respective divisions. Looking at team payrolls as well shows that richer teams are generally winning more games. Based on the 2009 payrolls, the top ten richest teams (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers, and Mariners) have a combined record of 169-140, 29 games above .500. The ten poorest teams (Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Rays, Twin, Orioles, Rangers, and Royals) have a combined record of 141-172, 31 games below .500.

Youngest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Marlins	26.2	17-15	36.8 (30)
Pirates	26.4	12-19	48.7 (28)
Twins	26.8	15-17	65.3 (24)
Rangers	26.9	17-14	68.2 (22)
Rockies	27.0	12-18	75.2 (18)

Oldest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Astros	30.2	14-17	103.0 (8)
Mets	29.8	17-13	149.4 (2)
Phillies	29.3	15-14	113.0 (7)
Blue Jays	28.9	22-12	80.5 (15)
Cubs	28.6	17-14	134.8 (3)

Does veteran leadership lead to more winning?
We constantly hear that “experience” can be an invaluable asset in the clubhouse and can help guide younger, less-experienced players. The argument that experienced players are not as easily overwhelmed by new situations, experienced players keep their cools in the clutch, and experienced players have learned from similar situations they have undergone in the past contribute to this idea as well. Teams that have had success recently often have had at least one of these veteran presences in the clubhouse. Last year, World Series winner Philadelphia had 45-year-old Jamie Moyer. The AL Champion Rays had veteran outfielder Cliff Floyd and closer Troy Percival, both of whom signed with the Rays in the offseason prior to their improbable World Series run.

Does more money lead to more winning?
Money runs our society and players want as much of it as they can get. Teams with more money to offer are able to lure superstars away from smaller-market teams and these superstars contribute to more success on the field. Richer teams also have more trade power and can acquire big stars via trades with smaller-market teams while merely shipping away young, unproven prospects. Recent examples include Johan Santana to the Mets via trade, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira to the Yankees via free agency, and Manny Ramirez resigning with the Dodgers for $25 million a year.

Does more money lead to older/more experienced players? Richer teams are able to procure experienced, winning players more easily than teams with lower payrolls. If the argument that having certain veterans leads to championships holds true, then richer teams can offer these veterans more money. This past year alone the Mets acquired veteran Alex Cora, a type of player considered to bring a positive presence to the clubhouse and the type of player that could catapult the Mets to the World Series. Cora, a “winning” player (1 World Series ring with Boston), was acquired by the Mets for $2 million. Cora, a mere bench player, would be the 4^th highest paid player on San Diego and the 8^th highest paid player on Florida and Minnesota with the same contract. Other recent examples include Mark Kotsay resigning with Boston for $1.5 million and Mark Loretta signing with the Dodgers for $1.25 million.

The relationship between age, money and winning is an interesting one and has profound impacts on the game. Veteran leadership and experience can propel teams to championships. Acquiring superstars can have the same effect. Although it is early in the 2009 season, trends between age, money, and winning are clearly evident and will continue to influence the game. -J.S.