Best and Worst #1 Overall Picks of the Last 25 Years: NHL

The NHL season is over and for all those who are not Pittsburgh Penguins fans, the only thing to look forward to now is the draft. The draft is a great time to restart a team and try to get back to the top. Unlike the other previous two sports I've reviewed, first overall picks in hockey usually tend to turn out pretty successful, making it hard to rank which ones are better. There are some older players who have been consistent but never won awards or even the Stanley Cup, while some younger players who seem to have Hall of Fame careers but that would be assuming that their career goes as projected. This list is hard to make but I believe a full career and a guaranteed spot in the Hall of Fame means more than only two or three years or success. 

Best 5 #1 Picks

1) Mario Lemieux - C - 1984 - Pittsburgh Penguins

The drafting of Super Mario single handedly saved the Penguins. The Penguins were a poor and struggling franchise who's main claim to fame may have been losing to the New York Islanders in 7 games after leading the series 3-0 in 1975. However, that was all changed when Lemieux came. After scoring on his first shot in his first shift in his first game, Lemieux led the Penguins to two Stanley Cups and holds a numerous number of records. Lemieux won 3 MVPs, lead the league in points 6 times, and may have broken all of Gretzky's numbers if he did not have to deal with so many injuries and a Hodgkin's diagnosis in his prime. Lemieux is arguably the greatest player in the history of the game and is definitely the best number one overall pick.

2) Mike Modano - C - 1988 - Minnesota North Stars

Perhaps the best American player of all time, Modano holds all the American records, including goals, assists, and points. While his career has slowed down in the past few years, Modano was one of the best players in the 1990's and early 2000's, winning the Stanley Cup with Dallas in 1999. Modano is a big players who has a great all-around game, having been nominated for both the Selke Award (best defensive forward) and Lady Byng Award (best sportsmanship). Modano is the best Star of all-time and the franchise will miss him when he ultimately retires.

3) Sidney Crosby - C - 2005 - Pittsburgh Penguins

Crosby only made this list after winning the Stanley Cup last week. Crosby can add the Stanley Cup to his growing list of accomplishments that now include a Hart Trophy (MVP), Art Ross (Point leader), and a Lester B. Pearson Award (Best player as voted by peers). He also happens to be the youngest player to win all of those and is the youngest captain to win the Cup. In only four seasons, Crosby has set a countless number of youngest player records and has already made three all-star games. He will be 22 when the next season starts and barring injuries or other complications, Crosby will definitely be in the conversation for best ever. 

4) Mats Sundin - C - 1989 - Quebec Nordiques

While Sundin had his best year as a Nordique, he really made his career after a trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the summer of 1994. After leading the Leafs as the captain for 11 years and to two conference finals in six years, Sundin holds the franchise records for points and goals. Sundin was the first European to be taken first in the draft and has the resume to justify the pick. Considered the ultimate symbol of consistency, Sundin scored 70+ points 15 times in 16 seasons and the only year he did not was the lockout of 1993-1994, where he scored 47 points in 47 games. Sundin has also scored more than 20 goals every years of his career except this past year when he played only 41 games for the defensively minded Vancouver Canucks. This astounding consistency earned Sundin 9 consecutive trips to the all-star game from 1996-2004 and four international Gold Medals.

5) Alex Ovechkin - LW - 2004 - Washington Capital

Ovechkin as played all of four years in the league and has already made three all-star games, been named to the First All-Star team three times (will be four this year), and has scored 50+ goals three times, including a left wing record 65 goals in the 2007-08 season. He also won the Calder Trophy (best rookie) over Sidney Crosby and the Hart, Art Ross, and Lester B. Pearson award. Oveckhin is also almost a guarantee to break Phil Esposito's record for most shots in a season, which may or may not be a good thing, but a record nevertheless. There is no question Ovechkin is one of the best three players in the NHL today and can cement his legacy as one of the best of all time if he stays motivated and dedicated to the NHL, something that Russians are not well known for. 

Worst 5 #1 Picks

1) Patrick Stefan - C - 1999 - Atlanta Thrashers

The Thrashers first move as a franchise was the select Stefan with the first pick in the 1999 draft, a move they would grow to regret. Stefan has been anything but a success, already retired after playing only 455 games and recording 188 points. Stefan played a full season only once, which was the same year he recorded his highest point total...40, with 14 goals. Fortunately for the Thrashers, their picks in the next few years turned out a lot better but picking Stefan has set a tone for the the franchise who has only made the playoffs once and is perennially one of the worst teams in the league. 

Better Picks: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Martin Havlat, Henrik Zetterberg

2) Alexander Daigle - C - 1993 - Ottawa Thrashers

Daigle is considered to be the biggest bust in the history of the NHL simply because of the hype and his actions in derailing his promising career. However, because he actually had talent and did something in the NHL, I would say he was a better pick than Stefan, which is still not saying much. In 616 games, Daigle put up 327 points with career highs of 51 three times. These were hardly the Gretzky numbers everyone expected when the Senators tanked to pick him. The Senators gave Daigle the highest salary in the NHL and proceeded to watch him throw his career away on partying and other distractions. By the age of 25, Daigle has quit hockey for Hollywood, finally coming back for the 2002-03 season and spent the next few years bouncing around between the NHL and AHL. Daigle has played the last two years in Switzerland. One his most infamous comments came on draft day itself when he declared he was happy to be the number one pick because no one remember number two. The number two pick in 1993 was MVP and Stanely Cup champion Chris Pronger.

Better Picks: Chris Pronger, Paul Kariya, Saku Koivu, Todd Bertuzzi, Pavol Demitra

3) Bryan Berard - D - 1995 - Ottawa Senators

Another one of Ottawa's three number one overall picks in four years, Berard seemed to a good number one pick until a freak accident. Berard won the Calder trophy for the Islanders (he did not want to play for the Senators so they traded him) and played in the 1998 Olympics. Unfortunately, his blossoming career was stopped when the Senators' Marian Hossa clipped Berard in the eye with his stick. The injury caused him to miss the 2000-01 season and while he has some success when he returned, his play never elevated to that of a number one pick. Berard's career high of 48 points came in his rookie season and while he may have broken it with the Chicago Black Hawks in 2004, he missed too many games. Berard now plays in Russia after playing only 54 games for the Islanders two years ago.

Better Picks: Shane Doan, Jarome Iginla, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Marc Savard Mikka Kiprusoff

4) Joe Murphy - RW - 1986 - Detroit Red Wings

At this point, the players are not as much of busts as they are just average NHL players, like Murphy. Murphy put up a respectable 528 points in 779 games and was part of the 1990 Edmonton Oilers, who won the Stanley Cup. However, besides his mediocre contributions in terms of points, Murphy did not bring much else to the table. He did perform well in the playoffs, standing third overall for most playoff OT goals with 4, but that is his best stat, which is pretty weak for a number one pick.

Better Picks: Vincent Damphousse, Brian Leetch, Teppo Numminem

5) Chris Phillips - D - 1996 - Ottawa Senators

Like Murphy, Phillips should not be regarded as a bust as much as much as just an average player who should not be living up to number one pick expectations. Phillips has been a strong defensive defenseman for the last 11 years, earning a positive +/- in nine of those 11 years. However, with a career high of only 26 points and not holding a #1 defenseman position for his whole career, it is hard to justify Phillips as a first overall pick.

Better Picks: Danny Briere, Zdeno Chara, Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle

-A.S.

Best and Worst #1 Overall Picks of the Last 25 Years: MLB

With the 2009 MLB Draft still on people's minds from two days ago, now would be a good time to look at the booms and busts of recent history. The Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg, who apparently wants up to $50 million in guaranteed money. Is he worth that much? Is any draft pick worth that much? Of course not. However, some picks do grow into quality players and do demand contracts much more valuable than that. Unfortunately, this era is the prime years for steroid takers so deciding between who did it and who did not is impossible. Some have been caught but that does not mean others won't be as well. Because no one is free from suspicion, I will not take steroid allegations and admissions into account.

Best 5 #1 Picks

1) Alex Rodriguez - SS - 1993 - Seattle Mariners

Here's is the man with not only the biggest contract in MLB history but also admitted that he took steroids for all the years he was on the Texas Rangers in the early 2000's. Rodriguez is also a tabloid magnet, being spotted with a variety of girls, both before and after his marriage ended. However, despite all the controversy that surrounds him, his skills and numbers are hard to question. The 3-time MVP winner has 560 HR, almost 2,500 hits, and bats for over .300 for his career. At only 33 years old, Rodriguez's numbers are sure to continue to rise through the rankings but unfortunately he will always be plagued by steroids and his lack of a World Series ring. 

2) Ken Griffey Jr. - OF - 1987 - Seattle Mariners

The second Mariner on the list is also the second best #1 overall pick of the last 25 years. Nicknamed the "Can't-miss-kid", Griffey Jr. did not. Through his illustrious career, Griffey Jr. has hit 617 Hr, won the MVP in 1997, and has won 10 Golden Glove awards. If not for his recent history of injuries, he would be number ranked on this list without question. Unfortunately, he is injury prone, having never played a full season in the majors and did not play even 100 games for three straight years from 2002-2004. Fortunately for Griffey Jr, his name has never been associated with steroids and he is sure to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer if nothing changes.

3) Chipper Jones - 3B - 1990 - Atlanta Braves

The first player on this list to actually win a World Series, Jones was an integral part of the Braves team that won 11 straight division titles and the 1995 World Series. Jones is a consistent hitter who won the MVP award in 1999 and has been selected to play in 6 all-star games. In his career, he has 2,327 hits and 415 HR and would have many more if not for injuries. Like Griffey Jr, Jones has been injury plagued throughout his career and has missed at least 25 games for the last 5 years. He played career lows 109 and 110 games in 2005 and 2006 respectively. However, despite some problems that have kept him off the field, his production when healthy does not lie.

4) Joe Mauer - C - 2001 - Minnesota Twins

Since entering the league in 2004, Mauer has cemented himself as one of the best hitters in the league, twice being named the AL Batting Champion. Mauer became the first AL catcher to ever accomplish this feat in 2006 and then repeated his achievement last year. He also made the all-star team those two years and won the Golden Glove last year. Mauer is only 26 and is sure to become the best catcher in the AL today and maybe the best in history.

5) Pat Burrell - LF - 1998 - Philadelphia Phillies

Burrell never made an all-star game or won an individual award but his consistency throughout his career is much better than other #1 overall picks who may have had two or three good seasons. Burrell is considered a power hitter and has consistently hit 25+ homers per year. While his numbers are never astronomical, he has won the World Series last year and was considered one of the primary leaders. Recently, Burrell signed with the Tampa Bay Rays, where he will play DH.

Worst 5 #1 Picks

1) Brien Taylor - P - 1991 - New York Yankees

There is always a reason for a bust, and Taylor's was a fight in the minors. Taylor tore is labrum in his throwing arm while defending his brother in a fight and never regained the skills that made him and #1 overall pick. Despite receiving a $1.55 million contract, Taylor never pitched a game in the majors and officially retired in 2000. In nine years, Taylor played in the minors bouncing between the various leagues. 

Better Picks: Manny Ramirez, Jason Isringhausen

2) Matt Anderson - P - 1998 - Detroit Tigers

Taylor injured himself in a fight; Anderson injured himself while throwing an octopus. While partaking in an octopus throwing contest for Detroit Red Wings playoff tickets, Anderson tore a muscle and never got his speed back. Anderson started his career with a 5-1 record and 3.27 ERA but after the injury, never pitched for an ERA of less than 4.72. Anderson bounced from team to team and is now playing in the minors for the Chicago White Sox. He last pitched in the majors in 2005 for the Colorado Rockies.

Better Picks: Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, Lance Berkman, Tim Hudson

3) Shawn Abner - OF - 1984 - New York Mets

Abner was the first player taken 25 years ago and never amounted to anything more than a back-up. Unlike the first two busts, Abner has nothing to blame for his failure to live up to his draft billing. After not playing a single game for the Mets, Abner was traded to the Padres in 1986 and played there until 1991. He then played for the Angels and White Sox in 1992, when his major league career ended. While not batting for power, he did not even bat for average, averaging only .227 for his career and hitting a total of 11 HR. 

Better Picks: Mark McGwire, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine

4) Bryan Bullington - P - 2002 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Bullington's failure to live up to a #1 overall's expectations are probably due to the fact that he didn't have the skills to be one in the first place. The notoriously cheap Pirates chose Bullington in an attempt to avoid a larger contract better players would have demanded. Still, Bullington's career has not even been average, having pitched less than 19 total innings in the majors and still racking up 5 losses. Bullington now plays for the Blue Jays' AAA team and will probably never amount to anything more than an occasional call-up.

Better Picks: Prince Fielder, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels

5) Paul Wilson - P - 1994 - New York Mets

The fourth pitcher featured in the busts category, Wilson has a career record of 40-58 and an ERA of 4.86. While he has performed a lot better than the other busts on this list, losing 18 more games than you win is not usually considered an success, especially for a #1 overall pick. Wilson played for three different teams and last pitched for a major league team in 2005. 

Better Picks: Nomar Garciaparra, Paul Konerko, Jason Varitek

-A.S.

Advice to Vikings: Stay Away from Favre

And the story is repeated: Brett Favre plays. Brett Favre ends season with bad game. Brett Favre retires. Brett Favre comes back. 

We saw this first occur last year after Favre lead his Green Bay Packers to the NFC Title game but last on an OT interception that allowed the Giants to advance and face the Patriots and ultimately win the Super Bowl. Soon afterwards, Favre called a news conference where he officially retired with the tears and everything. He cried about how it was finally over, how all good things must come to an end, and how he was ready to move on. Unfortunately for the Packers, and finally the New York Jets, he was not quite done. A few months after saying good-bye, Favre got the fever and football was the only cure. In a delicate situation that was mishandled by all involved, Favre was eventually traded to the Jets, who thought they had filled the final piece of the puzzle for a legitimate Super Bowl run. After Brady went down and the Jets started the season 8-3, all looked good and there was talk of a Jets vs. Giants Super Bowl. Unfortunately, Favre imploded (like he tends to do) and the Jets missed the playoffs. Oh yea, the upstart Miami Dolphins ended up winning the AFC East led by none other than Jets castoff Chad Pennington. Favre finished the season with the most interceptions in the league and a torn bicep tendon in his throwing arm. 11 months after his first retirement, he did it again and that brings us to our current situation.

In usual his usual fashion, Favre has started talks of coming out of retirement and playing for the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers divisional rivals. Favre feels that the Packers disrespected him and has now made it his life mission to sabotage them. The Vikings would love nothing more to sign a proven QB, which would fill their one missing piece of the puzzle. Sound familiar? The Vikings seem to have everything figured out except a QB. They have the best running back in the game with Adrian Peterson and a solid defense. While Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels may not be the answer, Favre is not either. What the Vikings need is a game manager, a QB who can make passes when needed but does not need to be the hero. The Vikings are a tough team that should and does rely on their running game to carry the team. The primary job of whoever plays QB for a team like this is to not turn the ball over, that's it. He doesn't need to make the big plays but he should not make mistakes. Doesn't sound like a job Brett Favre qualifies for. Favre would come in, demand the spotlight, play in his usual reckless way, and lead to Vikings nowhere. Favre is old and injury prone, as seen with the Jets. He may start off hot but his body is breaking down and signs show he cannot play for 17 weeks with his style of football. Favre was a great QB who has had a great career. Unfortunately, he has tarnished and the Vikings better stay away, lest he ruin their forthcoming season as well.

Best and Worst #1 Overall Picks of the Last 25 Years: NFL

With draft season already underway and three more to come in the next two months, I figured now would be a good time to take a look at the top 5 and worst 5 first picks of the various drafts. Because the NFL draft is already over and the other seasons have not ended yet, it makes most sense to start with the NFL. Because Matthew Stafford has yet to play a game in the NFL, the 2009 draft will not be accounted for, meaning only picks from 1984-2008 are taken into consideration. Because everyone likes to start off positively, let's look at the best first.

Best 5 #1 Picks

1) Bruce Smith - DE - 1984- Buffalo Bills

Although he never won a Super Bowl, Smith was one of the biggest reasons his Bills made the Super Bowl game four years in a row from 1990-1993. Smith was elected to 11 Pro Bowls and 9 All-Pro teams and is also the record holder for most career sacks with an even 200. Smith is unquestionably one of the two greatest Defensive Ends in the modern era and the Bills made an excellent selection when the picked him with the first pick in the draft. While some may argue that Jerry Rice has a better and more significant career, it is hard to blast choosing one hall-of-famer over another.

2) Peyton Manning - QB - 1998 - Indianapolis Colts

Despite looking like the obvious pick now, at the time there was actual indecision between choosing Manning or huge bust Ryan Leaf. Fortunately for the Colts, they went with the Tennessee star and have not looked back. In only 11 seasons, Manning has racked up 3 MVP awards, 9 Pro Bowl selections, 4 All-Pro selections, and of course a Super Bowl (as well as the Super Bowl MVP). Manning has crafted a career that may end up being the greatest QB career ever. By the end of his reign, he will probably have broken all of Favre's records, except for interceptions. When all is said and done, Manning will be the greatest first overall pick of the last 25 years, if not ever.

3) Troy Aikman - QB - 1989 - Dallas Cowboys

Aikman filled the QB position for Dallas's amazing trio in the 90's. With the help of WR Michel Irvin, and all time rushing yards record holder Emmit Smith, Aikman led the Cowboys to 3 Super Bowls in '93,'94' and '96, taking home the MVP of the Super Bowl for the first win. Although concussion problems limited his career to only 12 seasons, Aikman made the pro bowl in half of them and ultimately qualified for the Hall-of-Fame. Until Manning broke it in the 2000's, Aikman had the record for most wins in a decade with 90 in the 1990's.

4) Orlando Pace - OT - 1997 - St. Louis Rams

This giant of a man (6'7, 325 lbs) made himself into one of the best offensive lineman in recent history. After an amazing college career at Ohio State, Pace continued to be a wall for defensive linemen in the NFL. Pace protected Kurt Warner well enough for Warner to lead the Rams to two Super Bowl appearances, including a win in 1999 over the Tennessee Titans. Along with his Super Bowl ring, Pace has made 7 Pro Bowls and 5 All-Pro teams. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed his career lately and he now hopes to get back on track in Chicago.

5) Eli Manning - QB - 2004 - San Diego Chargers (Traded to New York Giants on Draft Day)

After the top four, there is a steep decline in qualities of picks. The deciding factor for Eli Manning was the fact that not only did he win a Super Bowl, but he also won a Super Bowl MVP. Manning entered the league with controversy after he refused to play for the San Diego Chargers, the team that originally drafted him and then losing his first few games in the 2004 season. However, after a few growing pains, Manning finally came into his own, making his first pro bowl this past year and winning the Super Bowl over the heavily favored Patriots in 2007.

Others Considered: Drew Bledsoe, Carson Palmer, Keyshawn Johnson, Mario Williams

Worst 5 #1 Picks

1) Ki-Jana Carter - RB - 1995 - Cincinnati Bengals

Unlike other busts inthe NFL, Carter's failed NFL career can be attributed more to injury than immaturity or simple lack of skills. After an outstanding three years at Penn State, the Bengals choose Carter with the first pick and seemed to have solved their running game problems. Unfortunately for all parties involved, Carter tore a ligament in knee in the preseason and never lived up to his potential. In 10 seasons, Carter rushed for only 20 touchdowns and averaged a miserable 3.6 yards per carry. 

Better Picks: Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Warren Sapp, Ty Law, Curtis Martin

2) Aundray Bruce - OLB - 1988 - Atlanta Falcons

Bruce's perceived failure may be due to unreal expectations. Although he had a good career at Auburn, people dubbed him the next Lawrence Taylor, an almost impossible level to reach. In the next 11 years, Bruce only started in 42 games and racked up a total of 32 sacks, hardly L.T. like numbers. While he was not a terrible role players, he did not come close to reaching the levels one expects out of a number one overall pick.

Better Picks: Tim Brown, Sterling Sharpe, Michael Irvin, Randall McDaniel, Thurman Thomas

3) Steven Emtman - DT - 1992 - Indianapolis Colts

Emtman is another bust whose career failed due to injuries. In his first three seasons, Emtman only played 18 games and only sacked the QB five times. The Colts drafted Emtman expecting a big, tough player to stop the run and get at the QB. Instead what they got was an injury prone player who was forced to retire at only 27 years old after six years in the league. 

Better Picks: Troy Vincent, Chester McGlockton, Jimmy Smith, Darren Woodson

4) Tim Couch - QB - 1999 - Cleveland Browns

Couch may have had a much better season had he not been chosen by the talentless Browns, who were reactivated the year Couch was drafted. This scenario left Couch with weak wide receivers, a bad offensive line, and basically no help in the running game. Couch did not perform too badly, leading his team to the playoffs in 2002, but an injury in the last game in the 2002 seasons sidelined him for good. Couch never threw more than two more TDs than INTs and never had a season passer rating of more than 77.6. Couch has a few injuries, but he played enough to show what he had and he did not have much.

Better Picks: Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Daunte Culpepper

5) Alex Smith - QB - 2005 - San Francisco 49ers

Some might consider it too early to call Smith a bust but the fact that he is a third string QB on a team that did not come close to the playoffs last year says it all. Smith's problems came early in his career when he threw only one TD and 11 picks in his rookie year; unfortunately, things did not get much better from there. After a mediocre sophomore season, Smith played only seven games in his third year and did not see the field once last year. In his four year career, Smith has thrown 19 TDs to 31 INTs and had a QB rating of 63.5. Smith still has time to turn his career around but there are no indications that that will happen anytime soon.

Better Picks: Barylon Edwards, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Marriman

-A.S.

NHL Finals Predictions

Let the comparisons commence. The NHL finals will be a repeat of the previous year's matchup for the first time since the 1983-84 finals, which was a repeat of the '82-83. Two two teams that clashed twice in a row were the incumbent New York Islanders and the up and coming Edmonton Oilers, led by, of course, Wayne Gretzky and his posse of young offensive superstars. The number of similarities are many.

1) 5 Stanley Cups

Like the Islanders, the Red Wings are going for their 5th Stanley Cup in recent years. While the Islanders won it four times in a row before their loss to the Oilers, the Red Wings won their first in 1997. Still, no one in the last 12 years has come close to matching the number of cups the Red Wings have won. The only team that has won more than one is the New Jersey Devils, who won in 2000 and 2003. Like the Islanders, the Red Wings are trying to continue a dynasty and win their 5th cup in the expansion era. 

2) Hall of Fame Defenseman

For the Islanders, it was Dennis Potvin; for the Red Wings its Niklas Lidstrom. Each has won multiple Norris Trophies for best defenseman in the league (Potvin had 3, Lidstrom has 6 and counting) and each was captain when the team won the cup. While there were many other strong players on each team, there is no question that these two players were the steady leaders and cornerstones needed to win Stanley Cups. 

3) Youth

The Penguins and Oilers were both led by young players in all positions. Gretzky, a 23-year old captain, received offensive help by 24 year old Jari Kurri, 23 year old Mark Messier, and 24 year old Glenn Anderson. On defense, 23 year old Paul Coffey became only the third defenseman to score more than 100 points in a season. And in goal, 22 year old Grant Fuhr stopped enough pucks to lead the team to its first cup. While the Penguins are not quite as young overall, their leaders are. Crosby, the captain, is two years younger than Gretzky was and he is helped by 22 year old Evengi Malkin, and 20 year old Jordan Staal. While the defense is led by veteran Sergei Gonchar, it is helped by future star 22 year old Kris Letang. In net, 2003 first overall pick Marc-Andre Fleury hopes to duplicate Fuhr's success in his second going in the Stanley Cup finals. 

The similarities continue but not it is time for predictions. Unfortunately, I once again went 50% in the last round, foolishly counting on youth over experience when choosing Chicago over Detroit. However, I do not learn from my mistakes and I am predicting the Penguins to take home the biggest prize in hockey for the first time since 1992. Unlike the Black Hawks, the Penguins have both youth and experience. They have made the playoffs for the last three years and made it to the finals last year. Just like the Oilers, the Penguins hope to show that they learned more from losing in the finals than the Red Wings did from winning. While the Red Wings have more depth from top to bottom, the Penguins hope their speed can overcome that flaw. Another thing the Penguins have going for them is the injuries to Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk, maybe the best two-way player in the league. If these two miss any games or cannot perform up to their best, the Red Wings will be in trouble. If the Red Wings do not get their essential players back, the series will be over in 6. If they do, I give it 7. The Penguins are young, hungry, and ready. Its the Red Wings' cup to lose but they will.

-A.S.

Conference Finals Predictions

After a strong performance in the first round, I stumbled in the second. I went 6/8 in the first round, incorrectly choosing the choke artists San Jose Sharks and surprisingly weak closers New Jersey Devils. However, I did pick every other series correctly and I had hoped to carry on my strong showing. Unfortunately, the Hurricanes once again thwarted my plan, beating the Bruins in 7. The Canucks also apparently did not want to follow my predictions and decided to let in 7 goals in the deciding game 6. Did I expect Roberto Luongo, maybe the best goalie in the league to let in 7 goals in the most important game of his career? I can honestly say I was shocked. Despite my less than passing grade of 50% in the last round, I think, nay, I know I will get back on my feet and go 2 for 2 in the upcoming series.

Western Conference

2) Detroit Red Wings vs. 4) Chicago Black Hawks

Before this season started, these two teams had two things in common, they are both Original 6 teams and they both play in the Central Division. Now they have one more, they are in the Western Conference Finals and that is it. These two classic teams could not be more opposite. One the one hand, you have Detroit who currently has the shortest Stanley Cup drought in the NHL, as they just won the Cup last spring. On the other hand, Chicago has the longest, having never won the championship since 1961. Detroit is captained by Swedish defensman Nicklas Lidstrom, the 38 year old veteran who has won four Stanley Cups. Chicago is captained by center Jonathan Toews, the 21-year old who was drafted three years ago. This matchup is the quintessential youth versus experience, speed versus knowledge, and Chicago versus Detroit. Much like the Bulls in the 1980s, the Black Hawks are coming in without any experience but a lot of firepower. Besides Toews, Chicago will rely on 20-year old and reigning Calder Cup Trophy (Best rookie) winner Patrick Kane, and 28-year old Martin Havlat for their scoring punch. In terms of keeping the puck out of their net, Chicago has a strong arsenal of young defenseman and if Detroit gets past them, they will have the get by goalie Nikolai "The Bulin Wall" Khabibulin, Chicago's lone Stanley Cup winner. Khabibulin led the Tampa Bay Lightning to the ultimate prize in 2004 and many believe he should have won the Conn Smythe Trophy (Most valuable player in the playoffs). He is proven and if he gets hot, he'll be hard to beat. Obviously Detroit has their own line up of deadly snipers and solid defenseman but they have yet to see a team with as much speed as the Black Hawks. The Blackhawks have already beaten two of the best goalies in the league in the past two rounds and Detroit's Chris Osgood is no Luongo or Mikka Kiprusoff. Osgood has led his team to the cup before but that was behind great defenses. If Chicago is able to use its speed and energy to get by and tire the Red Wings, this series could go either way. After doubting this young team last round, I will be expecting the upset.

Chicago in 6

Eastern Conference 

4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 6) Carolina Hurricanes

What I did not realize when I choose the Devils and then the Bruins over the Hurricanes was that Hurricane's goalie Cam Ward does not like to lose. Leading back to their Stanley Cup run in 2006, when he won the Smythe Trophy, Ward has yet to lose a playoff series in his career, going 6-0 thus far. Sidney Crosby and his fellow offensively talented Penguins hope to change this streak. After dismantling the Capitals in game 7 after a long and hard fought series, the Penguins are looking like an unstoppable offensive force, especially Crosby. Crosby, usually the set-up man, has scored 12 goals in 13 games so far in the playoffs and has had help. Evengi Malkin also began to contribute to the stat sheet after starting off the Washington series a little slow. However, the X-factor for the Penguins will be the play of third line center Jordan Staal. Staal will probably be matched up against his older brother and Carolina center Eric Staal, and their play may determine the series. If J. Staal is able to shut down his big brother and manage the put a few in the back of the net, the Penguins will be golden. If E. Staal runs all over his little brother and continues to be the goal scoring machine he has been so far, this series could go on longer than expected. While Jordan Staal and his line will take on much of the burden of stopping Carolina's first line, he will be helped by strong defensive play, especially out of veteran Rob Scuderi. Scuderi was the unsung hero of the Washington series, shutting down superstar Alexander Ovechkin more often than not. Although Ovechkin still put up his fair share of goals, and there were many, Scuderi held him in check with his shot blocking and strong checking ability. The Penguins may want to use a similar game plan by having Scuderi shadow E. Staal to prevent any openings. The Penguins are more talented and are better than Carolina at its own game. If the Penguins raise their play, as they have been doing, and do not allow the Hurricanes to feed of its momentum, a birth in the Finals should be in the bag. Sorry Ward, I still do not believe in you.

Penguins in 6

-A.S.

Increasing Importance of the Stolen Base

Although it’s early in the 2009 season, there have been some very memorable moments on the base paths this year. With the bases loaded in a 2-1 game, Jacoby Ellsbury stole home against Andy Pettitte in late April. Then, just a week later, Carl Crawford became only the third player since 1912 to steal 6 bases in a game, tying a MLB record. Then, just yesterday, Jayson Werth became the second player to steal home this year and just the ninth player since 1942 to steal second, third, and home in the same inning. Werth had four stolen bases total against the Dodgers and stole three in the seventh inning. He was able to sneak home after realizing Dodger catcher Russell Martin was paying no attention to him at third. As Martin was throwing the ball back to the mound after the fourth pitch of the at-bat, Werth broke for home and slid across home plate safely.

Although there have been some unusual feats accomplished already this year, stolen base numbers are on the rise across the majors. 20% into the season, teams are on pace to have more stolen bases than in any year this decade. The league average is on pace to be 105 total stolen bases per team by the end of the year. Last year, teams averaged 93 steals. From 2002 to 2007, teams averaged just 90 steals a year.

Teams are being aggressive on the bases and trying to force the issue. With home-run numbers down from the beginning of the decade, teams are finding new ways to score. Sluggers are being replaced by speedsters who can wreak havoc on the bases. From 2000-2003, an average of only 4 players had 40 or more steals per year. From 2006-2008, the average of players with more than 40 steals climbed to slightly over 9. And so far this year, 15 players are on pace to have at least 40 steals by the end of the season. Carl Crawford, leading the majors with 22 stolen bases, is on pace for 110, which would make him the first player since 1987 to have more than 100 steals in a single season.

Comparing home-run numbers and stolen bases on a team by team basis also shows the importance of the stolen base, at least for part of the league. Currently, the five teams with the most homers have a combined 96 stolen bases. The five teams with the lowest home-run totals have a combined 119 steals. At this pace, the teams with the lowest home-run totals would have 23 more stolen bases than teams with the highest home-run totals by the end of the year.

Top 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Rangers	55	25
Yankees	48	23
Blue Jays	45	15
Brewers	44	10
Rockies	43	23
Total	235	96

Bottom 5 HR Hitting Teams	Home-Runs	Stolen Bases
Giants	18	22
Athletics	19	12
Pirates	22	18
Mets	24	29
Angels	24	38
Total	107	119

Teams that have trouble hitting home-runs due to either a lack of power in their lineup or ballpark dimensions/conditions will tend to steal more bases in order to generate offensive production. Teams that are able to hit a lot of home-runs can rely on the long-ball for offense and do not have to steal as many bases. The risk-reward for stealing bases for HR-hitting teams is much lower than for teams who do not hit as many home-runs. Consider the following example: there are two outs and the team at-bat is down by a run late in the game. There is a base-stealer on first with the cleanup hitter batting. A team, such as the Rangers, who hit a ton of home-runs, will be less likely to make an attempt at stealing second base than a team like the Giants who rarely hit home-runs. The Giants need to make something happen by being aggressive on the bases while the Rangers can wait for the long-ball. To have a legitimate shot at tying the game, the Giants would need to get a runner into scoring position by stealing while the Rangers could realistically win on a 2-run homer.

This year, we have already had some extraordinary moments on the base paths, and as home-run totals continue to decline in the post-steroid era, we should expect to have some more in the near future. Look for teams to be more aggressive on the base-paths; stealing second with 2 outs, stealing third with 1 out, stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples. We may even see managers encouraging players to steal home or setting up the suicide squeeze in a tight game. Nothing is out of the question when offenses are struggling to hit the long-ball.

However, if stolen base numbers continue to rise, look for teams to adjust over time. A premium may be put on defensive-minded catchers and outfielders who can limit the number of extra-base hits. In addition, look for pitchers to adjust by developing new pick-off moves and changing their routine upon delivery to the plate, such as holding the ball longer in order to freeze the runner. Another effect of the increased stolen base numbers is a decrease in the number on intentional walks. Intentional walks are already down this year and are on pace to be the lowest total in the last decade. If fewer players are hitting home-runs and more are stealing bases, then it makes sense for pitchers to challenge hitters at the plate rather than automatically putting them on base where they could be a threat.

Now that home-run production has declined from the past 15 years, the stolen base will be increasingly utilized by teams struggling for offense. The stolen base will have far-reaching impacts on the game and force teams to change their strategies. As the season continues, look for teams struggling to score to take more chances on the bases and maybe even a couple of more players stealing home. -J.S.

Early Correlation between Experience and Success…and Money

Just five weeks into the baseball season, an interesting trend has emerged regarding average age and winning. Thus far, the ten oldest teams (as measured by average age of the active roster) have a combined record of 171-142, 29 games above .500. Of those ten teams (Astros, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, and Orioles), three are division-leaders and only one (Orioles) is in last place in its division. Meanwhile, the ten youngest teams have a combined record of 140-169, 29 games below .500. Of those ten teams (Marlins, Pirates, Twins, Rangers, Rockies, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Padres, and Mariners), one (Rangers) is a division-leader and four are in last place in their respective divisions. Looking at team payrolls as well shows that richer teams are generally winning more games. Based on the 2009 payrolls, the top ten richest teams (Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Dodgers, and Mariners) have a combined record of 169-140, 29 games above .500. The ten poorest teams (Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Rays, Twin, Orioles, Rangers, and Royals) have a combined record of 141-172, 31 games below .500.

Youngest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Marlins	26.2	17-15	36.8 (30)
Pirates	26.4	12-19	48.7 (28)
Twins	26.8	15-17	65.3 (24)
Rangers	26.9	17-14	68.2 (22)
Rockies	27.0	12-18	75.2 (18)

Oldest Teams	Average Age	Record	Payroll ($ million) (Rank)
Astros	30.2	14-17	103.0 (8)
Mets	29.8	17-13	149.4 (2)
Phillies	29.3	15-14	113.0 (7)
Blue Jays	28.9	22-12	80.5 (15)
Cubs	28.6	17-14	134.8 (3)

Does veteran leadership lead to more winning?
We constantly hear that “experience” can be an invaluable asset in the clubhouse and can help guide younger, less-experienced players. The argument that experienced players are not as easily overwhelmed by new situations, experienced players keep their cools in the clutch, and experienced players have learned from similar situations they have undergone in the past contribute to this idea as well. Teams that have had success recently often have had at least one of these veteran presences in the clubhouse. Last year, World Series winner Philadelphia had 45-year-old Jamie Moyer. The AL Champion Rays had veteran outfielder Cliff Floyd and closer Troy Percival, both of whom signed with the Rays in the offseason prior to their improbable World Series run.

Does more money lead to more winning?
Money runs our society and players want as much of it as they can get. Teams with more money to offer are able to lure superstars away from smaller-market teams and these superstars contribute to more success on the field. Richer teams also have more trade power and can acquire big stars via trades with smaller-market teams while merely shipping away young, unproven prospects. Recent examples include Johan Santana to the Mets via trade, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira to the Yankees via free agency, and Manny Ramirez resigning with the Dodgers for $25 million a year.

Does more money lead to older/more experienced players? Richer teams are able to procure experienced, winning players more easily than teams with lower payrolls. If the argument that having certain veterans leads to championships holds true, then richer teams can offer these veterans more money. This past year alone the Mets acquired veteran Alex Cora, a type of player considered to bring a positive presence to the clubhouse and the type of player that could catapult the Mets to the World Series. Cora, a “winning” player (1 World Series ring with Boston), was acquired by the Mets for $2 million. Cora, a mere bench player, would be the 4^th highest paid player on San Diego and the 8^th highest paid player on Florida and Minnesota with the same contract. Other recent examples include Mark Kotsay resigning with Boston for $1.5 million and Mark Loretta signing with the Dodgers for $1.25 million.

The relationship between age, money and winning is an interesting one and has profound impacts on the game. Veteran leadership and experience can propel teams to championships. Acquiring superstars can have the same effect. Although it is early in the 2009 season, trends between age, money, and winning are clearly evident and will continue to influence the game. -J.S.

Can Anyone Stop the Cavs?

First let me just say that the West is still a lot better than the East. The final four teams in the Western Conference are more talented and stronger than the four teams in the East. That said however, the best individual team may come from the weaker conference. The Cleveland Cavaliers have stormed through the playoffs and are on their way to a second straight sweep. After compiling a league's best 66-16 record and an almost record setting home record of 39-2, the Cavaliers look like the team to beat. Of course, it doesn't hurt when you have the Coach of the Year in Mike Brown and the best player and newly crowned MVP in LeBron James. James finally won his first MVP award in his sixth season and became the youngest to do so since Moses Malone in 1979. James' extraordinary set of skills makes him the most exciting and compelling player in the NBA. His natural ability to get to the basket, make great passes, and pull down rebounds sets him apart from rivals like Kobe Bryant and Dwayne Wade. Bryant may be the best scorer in the league, Wade may be the best penetrator, Dwight Howard may be the best rebounder, and Chris Paul may be the best passer, but none of them have the complete skill set of LeBron. 

 While James is far and away the best and most important player on the Cavs, what really makes the team special is the complementary players and the chemistry they have. Every player knows and embraces his role. Anderson Varejao provides the energy, all-star Mo Williams provides the secondary scoring, and Delonte West provides another penetrating factor to free up LeBron. Every player means something to this team. Their chemistry and tightness as a team is also astonishing. When James accepted his MVP, he brought his whole team to the ceremony and seeing his reactions to another teammates' dunk or flashy pass shows this is not a one-man show like the Lakers. The Cavaliers have yet to show weakness in the playoffs and to be honest, one should not expect a challenge until the Finals. Orlando or Boston may take a game or two in the Eastern Conference Finals but there is no way this Cavaliers team is not winning the East. When all is said and done, expect LeBron and his teammates to bring back the most important trophy of all: the Championship.

-A.S.

NHL Second Round Predictions

After a first round that lived up to many picks but also brought a few surprises, eight teams move on the getting one step closer to the coveted Stanley Cup. The biggest upset came out of the Western Conference where once again San Jose failed to meet expectations and fell the to 8th seeded Anaheim Ducks. While the Ducks underachieved throughout the whole season, they were finally able to put all the pieces together, including starting Jonas Hiller at goalie, to dismantle the Sharks. Even though they had a new coach, the Sharks were not able to receive the needed production from former MVP Joe Thornton, Captain Patrick Marleau, and other stars. Instead of continuing on to what seemed like a guaranteed long playoff run, the Sharks are once again out before May rolled around. The Eastern Conference also did not fail to disappoint in terms of surprises. While no series ended with a shocking winner, as many predicted the Hurricanes to upset the Devils, the Rangers and Capitals' series lasted longer than many expected. Behind the Henrik Lundqvist's great goaltending, the Rangers jumped out to a 3-1 series lead, a lead they have never lost before in their playoff history. Unfortunately for them, there's a first for everything. After game 4, Lundqvist became human again, Alexander Ovechkin found the back of the net, and the Capitals claimed the next three games. The next round should prove to contain just as much drama and excitement as the intensity increases.

Western Conference 

2) Red Wings vs. 8) Anaheim Ducks

In what may be one of the most intriguing 2 vs 8 matchup in NHL history, the Ducks look to develop a string of upsets and take out the defending Stanley Cup Champions. This series is a battle between the last two Champions and maybe the two best all-around teams in the league. The Red Wings, who became the first defending champion to win a first round series since the Avalanche in 2002, have some of the best two-way players in the NHL, specifically MVP candidate Pavel Datsyuk and Conn Smythe (MVP in playoffs) winner Henrik Zetterberg. Their defense may be the most experiences in the league, with 46-year old Chris Chelios and 6-time winner of the Norris Trophy (best defenseman) Nicklas Lidstrom. The only weakness may be at goaltending, but Chris Osgood has proven to be a winner as long as he has a team that can help him. The Ducks also have great players at all positions and carry over a very similar team that won it all two years ago. This will be a hard fought series, but home-ice advantage may prove to be the difference. 

Red Wings in 7

3) Vancouver Canucks vs. 4) Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks are finally back in the second round for the first time since 2002, led by great play from young players and the veteran defenseman Brian Campbell and goalie Nikolai Khabibulin. This is a young team that relies on speed, energy, and desire for motivation. Besides Campbell and Khabibulin, there is little to no playoff experience, but the blend has proven successful. The Canucks on the other hand are an older team with more experience and desperation. There are many old players who have yet to get their hands on Lord Stanley's Cup, including Mats Sundin, Pavol Demitra, and Sami Salo. However, this is not to say that they do not also have their share of young scrappers. Ryan Kesler, at only 24, has been nominated for the Selke Trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward. However, this is a team that relies on its goaltending first, as they are backed up by Roberto Luongo, arguably the best goalie in the world. This series will come down to who can carry their team farther, Luongo or Khabibulin.

Canucks in 6

Eastern Conference

1) Boston Bruins vs. 6) Carolina Hurricanes

Coming off a complete dismantling of their primary rivals, the Montreal Canadiens, the Bruins are feeling confident and ready to win their first Stanley Cup since 1972. Led by likely Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie) winner Tim Thomas, the Bruins feature both the best offense and defense in the Eastern Conference. Great setup man Marc Savard leads a young offense that features some of the best scorers in the league. The offense does not only rely on one line either, which makes it almost impossible to stop. The Bruins' defensive players are nothing to scoff at either. Two-time Norris Trophy finalist and captain Zdeno Chara is a stalwart at the defensive end and a threat at the offensive end, possessing the hardest shot in the league and one of the hardest in NHL history. However, if the Bruins think they can roll in and sweep the Hurricanes like they did the Canadiens, they will be behind and fast. The Hurricanes enter the second round with enormous momentum after winning game 7 against the New Jersey Devils with only 31.7 seconds left to play. Eric Staal's series winning goal came only 48 seconds after Jussi Jokinen scored a goal to tie the game. The Hurricanes are 1:20 away from heading to the golf course before they snatched away a victory from the formidable Devils. This series will be decided by what wins out, the Bruin's skills or the Hurricane's momentum.

Bruins in 6

2) Washington Capitals vs. 4) Pittsburgh Penguins

This series is the series that NHL executives have been waiting for ever since Sidney Crosby was drafted in 2005. It will feature the best young players in the NHL, with Ovechkin, Crosby, Pen's Evengi Malkin, Cap's Alexander Semin, and more. The Penguins enter the series after taking care of their inter-state rivals Philadelphia Flyers in 6. The series win only continued to prove that this is a different Penguins team that looked like it wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs earlier in the season. It also marked the first time a losing conference finals winner made the second round since the Dallas Stars made the second round in 2001. The Penguins hope they can find a little more success against a team that has quickly developed into a primary rival. There is much bad blood between these two teams, as both Crosby and Ovechkin have traded words. Malkin and Ovechkin also have a history, going back to agents in Russia. Not to feel left out, Semin also threw his hat in the ring with some critiques of Crosby. This four way battle between four of the best young guns in the league will provide enough drama to keep anyone watching. However, the series will be determined by not young forwards but young goaltenders. The Penguins are backed by 24-year old and former number one overall pick Marc-Andre Fleury while the Capitals are backed up 20-year old rookie Simeon Varlamov, who took over Jose Theodore after game 1 of the Rangers' series. While Varlamov looked good in round one, he will face a much tougher test, as the Rangers were the worst offensive team in the league and the Penguins are one of the best. These are both unpredictable goalies, so which ever one decided to step up will be the one to take his team to the conference finals.

Penguins in 6

-A.S.

NHL Playoff Predictions: West

While the East stars some of the best young, offensive teams in the league, the West primarily relies on tough defensive play, so one might expect very physical series from the other coast.

Western Conference

1) San Jose Sharks vs. 8) Anaheim Ducks

Despite winning the Stanley Cup only two years ago, the Ducks find themselves in a vulnerable position facing what has been far and away the best team in the league this season. The Sharks have been contenders for the past few years but the firing of Head Coach Ron Wilson over the summer and the acquisition of Dan Boyle seems to have put them in a better position than ever before. The Sharks have the best defense in the Western Conference and the best record at home in the league. Meanwhile the Ducks, while talented and dangerous, always find themselves a man short, which might define the series considering the Sharks have the 3rd best power-play in the league and the Ducks have the 8th worst penalty kill. Don't be surprised if the Ducks win a few games but the Sharks did not play this well in the regular season to lose in the first round, especially to a division and in-state rival.

Sharks in 6

2) Detroit Red Wings vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

The only similarity these two teams may have is that they both play in the Central Division. After that fact, these two teams may have the most different histories in any series this year. The Red Wings are 11-time Stanley Cup Champions (including last year), have made the playoffs for 19 straight years, and have finished in the top two spots in their division for 17. The Blue Jackets historical records look like this: 9 years of existence, 1 playoff appearance. The Blue Jackets are the last time in the NHL to make the playoffs but they've finally done it lead by amazing goaltending from rookie Steve Mason and strong offensive play from the 2004 NHL leading goal scorer and captain Rick Nash. Unfortunately, this may be the first and only series for the Blue Jackets this year. The Red Wings only got better from last year, benefitting from strong goalie play from Chris Osgood and Ty Conklin and career seasons from many role players. The only way the Blue Jackets pull out the victory is if Mason plays better than he already has the whole season. Expect very dominating games on the Red Wings part but closer scores than the games indicate.

Red Wings in 5

3) Vancouver Canucks vs. 6) St Louis Blues

The percentage of hockey experts who predicted the Blues to be in playoffs as the 6th seed might be lower than the seed itself. The Blues seemingly came out of nowhere to nab a playoff spot after missing the big dance for the last three years. Many thought they would be playing for a good draft position and they were until the second half of the season when something clicked. It may have been the organization's refusal to participate in the yearly fire sale at the trade deadline, but whatever it was, it has worked the Blues get to play past mid-April again. Unfortunately, they must get past the also red hot Canucks in the first round. After starting the season well, the Canucks seemed to have lost their magic after signing former Leafs captain Mats Sundin half way through the season. They lost a franchise record 10 straight at home and seemed to be in free fall. However, as quickly as they fell they seemed to get right back up, going on a strong run the finish the season as the Northwest Division Champions, an achievement that seemed impossible two months ago. The Blues have a good young team but will probably not have enough for the fired up Canucks.

Canucks in 5

4) Chicago Blackhawks vs. 5) Calgary Flames

The once great Blackhawks are finally back in the playoffs and in serious contention to make some noise. In what has been a three year process, the Blackhawks regained their lost fanbase, drafted young skilled players, and played their way into the playoffs for the first time since 2002. This year has been a great story for Chicago and they hope they can continue against the sinking Flames. The Flames main problem has been inconsistency, lack of chemistry, and injuries. After making a splash at the trade deadline that seemed to cement them as NW Champions and Stanley Cup contenders, they lost their division lead and their seemingly invincibility. Even stalwart goalie Miikka Kiprusoff seems to have lost his touch. If the Flames want to win this series, they will have to find their pre-March magic and step up to a determined Blackhawks team.

Blackhawks in 7

-A.S.